The stock price of ChemoCentryx (NASDAQ: CCXI), a biopharmaceuticals company focused on orally-administered therapeutics to treat autoimmune diseases and inflammatory disorders, has skyrocketed with a 104% rise over the last month. This can be attributed to an unexpected U.S. FDA approval of Tavneos – an oral drug for treatment of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated vasculitis – a rare autoimmune disease characterized by inflammation and damage to small blood vessels. 
Now, why this is important is that there are 57,000 patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis in the U.S., with a primary addressable patient population of 9,500 for Tavneos. The treatment is expected to cost $150K-$200K annually, with peak sales touted to be as high as $1.0 billion over the next few years. For perspective, ChemoCentryx reported revenues of just $65 million in 2020. It was no surprise that investors cheered this development and the CCXI stock rose 2x in a month.
However, now that CCXI stock has seen a rise of 104% in a month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Interestingly, this is not the first time that CCXI stock has risen 2x in a month, and despite the recent rally, there is a high chance of a rise in CCXI stock over the next month, going by the stock’s historical performance. Out of 29 instances in the last ten years that CCXI stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 104% or more, 21 of them resulted in CCXI stock rising over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 21 out of 29, or about 72% chance of a rise in CCXI stock over the coming month. See our analysis on ChemoCentryx Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that CCXI stock will rise to higher levels going forward. Also, ChemoCentryx Stock Return summarizes CCXI stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data
- After moving -6.5% or lower over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 51% of the occasions.
- After moving 77% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 67% of the occasions
- After moving 104% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 72% of the occasions.
ChemoCentryx Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: ACT highest at 6.4%; CCXI lowest at -6.5%
- Ten-Day Return: CCXI highest at 77%; LIVN lowest at -0.8%
- Twenty-One Day Return: CCXI highest at 104%; PCRX lowest at -4.1%
While CCXI stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Johnson & Johnson vs. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals.
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